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| ProBets-II Thououghbreds Quarterhorse Harness Dogs Voice / FAX: (619) 435-6744 |
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PROBETS-II is a departure from what many consider "true handicapping." Indeed, there are those purists who will read this with disdain. Denigrate its virtues. Accuse me of charlatanism. Such denunciations, however, fail to penetrate the bastion of success myself and many others have had with this program. That said, and distracters acknowledged (if that be your ilk), let's muddle on. Input into the program can be any service, public handicapper, or rating that orders selections on a 1-2-3 (best, second best, third best) basis. It's most common application considers selections from a group of public handicappers (at least 15 recommended) and produces various ratings including predicted odds-off. A careful analysis of the output can not only isolate contenders, but point to spot plays and tell you when there is too much contention. Probets accepts the top three horses from up to 30 handicappers or methods, rates them according to their order, and displays the four factors shown in the examples. Additionally any handicapper or method can be given more or less influence on the final outcome. This allows you to weight your best methods or best handicappers as you see fit. Its output is a powerful tool for those races where past performance data is spotty. It's especially useful when handicapping MAIDEN races and races with a lot of first time starters, shippers, or foreign entries. I've found that the program can produce remarkable results especially on otherwise difficult to figure races. Also, if you're vulnerable on isolating contenders, this program will do it for you quickly, with fewer horses, and with higher in-the-money percentages than most "experts" can flaunt. It' s another great weapon in your arsenal. It can get you the horse that will win that big exotic. Data entry is simple and fast, you can set-up a group of handicappers to use as a default condition, then use only the ones you want for analysis with the option of toggling the others back in. To do this type of "SUPER CONSENSUS" by hand would tale hours and be very prone to error. In the examples that follow PUBLIC HANDICAPPERS were used, but I could have used results from different programs, various ratings, etc. and mixed them with the handicappers opinions. Briefly, the ratings are as follows:
ODDS: The estimated odds each horse will go off. If your using popular
handicappers this number will reflect how the public should bet. You
may have a different opinion as to a horse's true chance of winning,
especially if you are using SpeedPlus.
***** (the asterisks) : The number of asterisks is simply the number
of"votes" each horse recieved without regard to order. For example,
if each of 15 handicappers thought horse "A" would win, Horse "B"
would place, and horse "C" would show, each would have 15 asterisks.
PER: This is the average weight of each vote (asterisk). In the case of
horses "A", "B", and "C" referenced above, A's per would be "5". B's
would be "2", and C's "1".
SCH: This is a composite rating that takes both the number of votes
(asterisks) and the weight of each vote (PER) into account.
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ODDS SCH PER
1 MOST DETERMINED... 1.7 32 2.8 **************
2 DANCING KIN....... 1.9 29 2.7 *************
3 INPULSIVELY....... 3.5 19 2.9 ********
4 JOVIAL............ 5.7 12 3.0 *****
5 TABULAR........... 2.5 22 2.1 *************
6 MORSE CODE........ 16.3 4 5.0 *
...MOST DETERMINED and DANCING KIN are the two picks based on SCH, PER,
and VOTES. The best price plays on the other hand are INPULSIVELY and
JOVIAL based on ODDS and PER.
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ODDS SCH PER
1 CAPTAIN VIGORS.... 1.0 49 3.8 ****************
2 BILLYS BACK....... 2.0 34 3.5 ************
3 LAB TEST.......... 9.0 10 1.5 ********
4 TV OIL............ 12.0 7 1.6 *****
5 GUMMO BOY......... 35.0 2 1.5 **
6 PREDETERMINED..... - 0 -
7 ULTIMATE PRIVACY.. 15.0 6 2.3 ***
8 TIME OF MY LIFE... 10.0 9 1.6 *******
9 LUCKY JO.......... 35.0 1 1.0 *
...This one's easy CAPTAIN VIGORS and BILLYS BACK in that order.
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ODDS SCH PER
1 BLOOMS BEAUTY..... 0.8 51 4.8 *************
2 ALLEZ BRIT........ 2.6 25 2.5 ************
3 FARADPOUT......... 4.0 18 1.8 ************
4 ELIMINATE......... 9.0 8 2.5 ****
5 TRAVET............ 10.7 7 1.3 ******
6 SALOUM............ 8.0 10 1.7 *******
7 PINTADOR.......... - 0 -
8 ELEFANTE.......... - 0 -
9 SNAZZY GUY........ - 0 -
...BLOOMS BEAUTY all the way
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ODDS SCH PER
1 BUCKARITO......... 4.0 20 2.5 **********
2 GRAY PINSTRIPE.... 2.0 34 3.0 **************
3 INQUISITIVE....... 4.0 20 2.4 **********
4 BE THANKFULL...... 35.0 2 1.5 **
5 SURGING ON........ 35.0 2 1.5 **
6 MIKES CAT......... 7.0 12 2.5 ******
7 SCRIPTURE......... 12.0 7 2.3 ****
8 DUSTYS MY LOVE.... 25.0 4 5.0 *
9 SIR LORD.......... - 0 -
10 BOLD TOPSIDE...... 5.5 15 3.6 *****
...GRAY PINSTRIPE'S SCH of 34 make him the top choice in the case.
However the 3.6 PER of BOLD TOPSIDE coupled with 5 votes makes him a
contender at a good price. BUCKARITO and INQUISITIVE can't be ignored,
but I'd consider them for the place spot or in an exacta. The 5.0 per of
DUSTYS MY LOVE coupled with only one "vote" means that he was picked on
top by one handicapper and had no other votes. I like more confirmation
than this.
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ODDS SCH PER
1 MY VA REEL........ 0.8 48 3.6 ****************
2 NUCULAR WINTER.... 0.8 48 3.6 ****************
3 HUSH BIDDER....... 10.7 7 1.1 ********
4 GOODSIDE.......... 13.0 6 1.4 *****
5 NOT ALL FOR THE MO 16.7 5 1.2 *****
6 EN MENTIRA........ 30.0 2 2.0 *
7 SWEET CAPAPIE..... 30.0 2 1.5 **
8 HOMICIA........... 30.0 1 1.0 *
...A two-horse race
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